Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. Will it be a close race or, um, not? RCP Senate Map Race Changes. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Find out how all this works in our. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. The figures shown are total numbers. All 435 seats were up for election. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. Click on the to see the other two. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Analysis>. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. By Leke Baiyewu. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. California. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. The party gained a net of nine districts. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. Read the Analysis >. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r